Prediction Market Sites for USA Players

Welcome to the legalusagambling.com guide to prediction market sites, where we break down how these platforms work, which ones accept American players, where the legal fight stands and whether they make sense as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets have moved from niche academic curiosity to a major player in American gaming in a very short window, driven largely by the explosive growth of Kalshi and Polymarket and the entry of big-name sportsbook operators like DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics into the space.

The prediction market industry is one of the most legally contested corners of U.S. gaming right now. Federal regulators say it is a financial market. State regulators say it is gambling. Court rulings have gone both ways, and the Supreme Court may end up weighing in before the end of 2026. In the meantime, prediction markets continue to operate across the country, and American players who want to trade on the outcome of real-world events have more options than ever.

Best Prediction Market Sites for USA Players

The best prediction market sites for USA players vary based on what you want to trade. If you are focused on politics and economics, Kalshi is the deepest market. If you are focused on sports, DraftKings Predictions, Underdog and Fanatics Markets all offer competitive pricing. If you want the global market with the most exotic contracts, Polymarket is back in the U.S. in a regulated form. Below are short reviews of the eight platforms we think most American players should know about. Keep in mind that state availability shifts frequently as new court rulings come down, so always check a platform's restricted state list before signing up.

Kalshi

Kalshi is the dominant U.S. prediction market by a wide margin, with roughly 89 percent market share as of early 2026. It holds a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is the federal framework that keeps the platform operating in most states despite ongoing legal challenges. Kalshi offers the broadest market catalog in the U.S., covering sports, politics, economics, weather, entertainment and more. Its fee structure is formula-based, peaking around 7 percent at even-money contracts and declining toward the edges. Kalshi has been blocked in some states due to state-level court rulings, but remains available in more than 40 states for most market types.

Polymarket

Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world by global trading volume, and it re-entered the U.S. market in late 2025 after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange. The platform runs on blockchain rails and uses cryptocurrency for deposits and withdrawals, which is different from most of its U.S. competitors. Polymarket's fee structure is the simplest in the industry at a flat 0.10 percent taker fee. Market depth is excellent on political, global affairs and crypto-adjacent contracts. State-by-state availability is still being worked out in the courts, including a Nevada civil complaint filed against Polymarket in January 2026.

Underdog

Underdog started as a daily fantasy sports operator and pivoted into prediction markets in 2025 through a partnership with Crypto.com. In early 2026, Underdog purchased Aristotle Exchange, giving it its own federally regulated exchange and allowing it to offer sports event contracts directly. The platform is sports-first and designed for fans rather than professional traders, using a simplified yes or no mechanic that feels closer to a sportsbook than a full order book. Underdog is available in roughly 30 states, including California, Texas and Georgia, where traditional sports betting is not legal.

Crypto.com

Crypto.com operates one of the most widely distributed prediction market products in the U.S., largely because it supplies sports event contract markets to other platforms including Underdog, Fanatics Markets and, as of early 2026, DraftKings Predictions. The standalone Crypto.com app offers event contracts alongside the company's broader crypto trading, staking and payment products. The platform is CFTC-regulated and covers sports, politics and financial markets. Existing Crypto.com users will find the prediction markets section easy to use because it sits inside the interface they already know.

Robinhood

Robinhood launched a prediction markets product in 2025 that leverages its existing base of retail traders. The platform offers event contracts alongside its traditional stock, options and crypto products, making it an easy entry point for people who already have a Robinhood account. Market selection is narrower than Kalshi, with a focus on high-interest political, economic and sports contracts. Robinhood is a named defendant in the federal lawsuits the CFTC has filed against states trying to block prediction markets, which puts it in the middle of the legal fight but also signals its commitment to the space.

PredictIt

PredictIt is the original U.S. political prediction market, launching in 2014 under a no-action letter from the CFTC. The platform received full CFTC approval in September 2025, which removed the old 5,000-trader-per-market cap that had defined the site for a decade. PredictIt remains political-focused, with deep markets on elections, legislation and policy decisions that you will not find with as much granularity anywhere else. The fees are the highest in the industry at 10 percent on profits and 5 percent on withdrawals, which makes PredictIt best suited to traders who have a specific edge on political contracts.

Fanatics Markets

Fanatics Markets launched in December 2025 through a partnership with Crypto.com, making Fanatics the first major U.S. sportsbook operator to enter the prediction market space. The platform is sports-focused and integrates with the broader Fanatics ecosystem, including merchandise and collectibles. Market selection leans heavily toward professional and college sports event contracts. Fanatics Markets is available in 24 states as of launch, including Florida, which is particularly notable because Florida's sports betting market is controlled by a tribal compact that does not apply to federally regulated prediction markets.

DraftKings Predictions

DraftKings Predictions launched in December 2025 across 38 states, including California, Texas and Florida, making it one of the broadest rollouts in the industry. The platform is CFTC-regulated through partnerships with CME Group and Crypto.com, and DraftKings has also acquired Railbird Exchange to eventually run its own Designated Contract Market. Fees are a flat $0.02 per contract traded. Sports contracts are available in only a portion of the states where the platform operates, reflecting the state-by-state legal fight around prediction markets.

Prediction Markets Comparison Table

The table below is a quick-reference comparison of the major U.S. prediction market platforms. Market availability, pricing and state access change frequently, so treat this as a starting point rather than a permanent reference.

Platform	Regulation	Main Markets	Fee Structure	State Availability
Kalshi	CFTC DCM	Politics, sports, economics, weather, entertainment	Formula-based, peaks near 7% at even money	40+ states
Polymarket	CFTC via acquired DCM	Politics, global affairs, crypto, sports	0.10% flat taker fee	Varies by state
Underdog	CFTC via Aristotle Exchange	Sports-focused	Built into contract pricing	30+ states
Crypto.com	CFTC DCM	Sports, politics, financial	Varies by market	Most U.S. states
Robinhood	CFTC-regulated	Politics, economics, sports	Low per-contract fees	Most U.S. states
PredictIt	CFTC-approved	Political only	10% on profits, 5% on withdrawals	Most U.S. states
Fanatics Markets	CFTC via Crypto.com partnership	Sports	Built into contract pricing	24 states
DraftKings Predictions	CFTC via CME, Crypto.com, Railbird	Sports, economics	Flat $0.02 per contract	38 states (sports in ~17)

Prediction Market Sites vs Legal Online Sportsbooks

Prediction market sites and legal online sportsbooks offer a similar result (the chance to profit from correctly predicting a sports outcome) but they are structured very differently. Legal online sportsbooks operate under state licenses and offer fixed-odds wagers where you are betting against the house. The sportsbook sets the odds, takes your bet and profits from the built-in margin (the vig). Prediction markets operate under federal CFTC oversight and offer yes or no event contracts traded between users. The platform matches buyers and sellers and takes a fee on each trade but does not take a position against you.

The practical differences are significant. Sportsbooks offer more market depth on major sports, better live betting, promotional bonuses and a polished interface built for casual fans. Prediction markets offer lower fees on heavily traded contracts, the ability to sell a position before the event resolves, and access in states where traditional sportsbooks are not legal. Prediction markets also cover categories that sportsbooks cannot touch, like politics, economics and global events. For pure sports betting, a licensed sportsbook generally offers a better user experience. For flexibility, state availability and non-sports markets, prediction markets have the edge.

Are Prediction Market Sites Legal?

Prediction markets operate under a federal regulatory framework managed by the CFTC, which treats event contracts as financial derivatives rather than as gambling. The legal theory is that because event contracts are standardized swaps traded on a licensed exchange, they fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and not under state gambling laws. That argument has held up in several federal court rulings, most notably the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals decision that found prediction markets cannot be regulated by state sports gambling laws.

That said, the legal picture is far from settled. Several states have secured preliminary injunctions against Kalshi and Polymarket under state gambling law. The CFTC has responded by suing Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to protect its federal jurisdiction over event contracts. A circuit split appears likely, which would make the case ripe for the Supreme Court. For now, most major prediction markets remain operational in most U.S. states, but individual platforms may be restricted in specific states where courts have ruled against them or where the operator has voluntarily exited.

States That Have Prediction Market Sites

Prediction market sites operate in most U.S. states, though the specific platform availability varies. The largest platform, Kalshi, is available in more than 40 states. DraftKings Predictions is live in 38 states. Crypto.com and Robinhood have presence in most of the country. Underdog operates in 30-plus states. States where prediction markets are most widely available include Texas, Florida, California, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and other markets that do not have legal state-regulated online sportsbooks. That is a big part of why prediction markets have grown so fast. They offer event-based trading in states where traditional sports betting has been impossible.

Even within states where prediction markets operate, certain market categories may be restricted. Sports event contracts in particular have been the target of most state-level litigation, and several platforms that offer full market catalogs in most of the country have had to pull sports markets from specific states. Financial, political and weather markets tend to face fewer state-level challenges.

States That Have Banned Prediction Markets

No state has passed legislation that explicitly bans prediction markets in the way several states have banned sweepstakes casinos. What has happened instead is a patchwork of state-level legal actions that have forced specific platforms to stop serving residents of specific states. The list of states where one or more major prediction market platforms have been blocked includes the following.

Nevada - Secured a preliminary injunction against Kalshi and filed a civil complaint against Polymarket in January 2026.
Massachusetts - Won a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Commonwealth v. KalshiEX LLC, finding that sports event contracts function as illegal sports wagering under state law.
New Jersey - Took legal action against Kalshi but lost on appeal when the Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi's favor.
Washington - Filed a civil complaint against Kalshi in April 2026, with the state attorney general's office arguing the platform is operating an illegal gambling business.
Arizona - Has taken action against Kalshi and is being sued by the CFTC to protect federal jurisdiction.
Connecticut - Also sued by the CFTC over state-level enforcement actions against prediction markets.
Illinois - Also sued by the CFTC for similar reasons.

Whether a specific platform works for you in one of these states depends on which company is involved in the state-level action, the current status of any injunction and how the platform has chosen to handle it. Some platforms, including Fanatics Markets, have avoided certain states entirely to steer clear of the legal fight.

States That Are Trying to Ban Prediction Market Sites

Beyond the states that have already taken legal action, several others have signaled intent to move against prediction markets. Tribal gaming coalitions in states including California and Florida have been vocal opponents, arguing that prediction markets undermine tribal gaming compacts. Ohio, Maryland and Michigan have had state officials raise concerns publicly, though no formal lawsuits or legislative bans have materialized yet in those states. The National Conference of Legislators from Gaming States has identified prediction markets as one of the hottest regulatory topics of 2026.

At the federal level, legislation has also been proposed in Congress to restrict prediction markets. Representatives including Mike Levin (D-California) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) have raised concerns about war-related event contracts and broader consumer protection issues. Several Republican members of Congress have joined the call, which is notable because the federal legal framework has otherwise largely protected prediction markets from state-level challenges.

Why Are People Trying to Ban Prediction Market Sites?

The pushback against prediction markets comes from several directions. State gaming regulators argue that event contracts on sporting events are functionally identical to sports bets and should be regulated as such, including the taxes, consumer protections and licensing requirements that apply to state-licensed sportsbooks. Tribal gaming interests argue that prediction markets undermine the exclusivity of state-tribal gaming compacts, particularly in states like Florida, California and Connecticut where tribes have negotiated exclusive sports betting rights.

Ethical concerns have also driven some of the recent pressure. War-related event contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi have drawn criticism after reports that individuals with insider information, including allegedly U.S. government employees and foreign military personnel, have placed large bets on upcoming military actions. Reporters Without Borders has criticized Polymarket after journalists covering conflict zones reported harassment from traders trying to influence market outcomes. Congressional critics across the political spectrum have seized on these stories to argue that prediction markets create incentives to manipulate real-world events.

The third major driver is competition. Legal state-licensed sportsbooks, primarily DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Bet365 through their Sports Betting Alliance, have funneled tens of millions of dollars into political spending aimed at both legalizing traditional sports betting in new states and pushing back on prediction markets as an end-around. These same companies are also launching their own prediction market products, which adds a layer of complexity to the industry's political alignment.

Betting Real Money on Prediction Markets

Real money trading on prediction markets is simpler than it looks. You deposit funds, buy yes or no contracts on the event you want to predict and hold them until the event resolves. Winning contracts settle at $1, losing contracts settle at $0. You can also sell your contracts back into the market at any point before resolution if the price has moved in your favor or you want to cut your losses. The most important thing to understand is that you are trading against other users, not against the house, which is fundamentally different from placing a bet at a traditional sportsbook.

Deposit methods vary by platform. Kalshi accepts bank transfers, debit cards and wires, with a minimum deposit of $1 in some cases. Polymarket runs on crypto and uses USDC as its primary settlement currency. Robinhood and Crypto.com use their existing account infrastructure. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts accept standard payment methods similar to their sportsbook products. Withdrawal times vary. Kalshi processes ACH withdrawals in a few business days while Polymarket's crypto withdrawals happen faster but require you to move between cryptocurrencies and dollars on your own.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are trading platforms where people buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. A prediction market contract typically asks a yes or no question about something that will happen in the future, like "Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LXI?" or "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at its next meeting?" Each contract has two possible settlements. If the event happens as described, yes contracts pay out $1 and no contracts pay out $0. If the event does not happen, the reverse is true. The price of the contract between zero cents and $1 represents the market's consensus probability that the event will occur.

The idea behind prediction markets is that large numbers of traders with money on the line produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits or experts. During major events like U.S. presidential elections, prediction markets have often been more accurate than polling in the final days before the vote. That information value is the academic argument for why prediction markets should exist, and it is part of why the CFTC treats these contracts as financial instruments rather than as gambling.

How Do Prediction Market Sites Work?

Understanding how prediction markets work takes a little more explanation than how a sportsbook works, but once you grasp the basics, the rest makes sense quickly. Every prediction market starts with a question that has a clear, verifiable resolution. An example might be "Will unemployment be above 4 percent in the September 2026 jobs report?" The platform creates two contracts tied to that question, a yes contract and a no contract. Each contract will eventually settle at either $1 or $0 depending on the actual outcome.

The contracts trade against each other. The price of a yes contract plus the price of the corresponding no contract always equals $1. If the yes contract is trading at $0.65, the no contract is trading at $0.35. Those prices reflect the collective probability the market assigns to each outcome. You buy yes contracts if you think the event is more likely than the market implies and no contracts if you think it is less likely. If you turn out to be right, your contracts settle at $1 and you pocket the difference between your purchase price and the settlement. If you are wrong, your contracts settle at $0 and you lose what you put in.

Here is the important part that distinguishes prediction markets from sports betting. You can sell your contracts back into the market at any time before resolution. If you bought yes contracts at $0.40 and the price has risen to $0.70, you can sell and lock in a profit without waiting for the event to actually happen. This is why prediction markets behave like financial markets, with prices that move continuously as new information becomes available. A political debate, an economic report or breaking news can move a prediction market price within seconds.

The platform profits by taking a small fee on each trade, not by taking a position against you. That is the core legal distinction between prediction markets and sportsbooks. The sportsbook makes money when you lose because you are betting against the book. A prediction market makes money regardless of the outcome because it is just matching buyers and sellers, same as a stock exchange.

Common Prediction Market Formats

Prediction markets generally fall into a few structural formats that determine how contracts are priced and resolved. Understanding the formats helps you pick markets that match your strategy.

Yes or No Markets - The most common format, where a single question has two possible outcomes and contracts settle at $1 or $0. Most sports, political and economic markets use this format.
Range Markets - Contracts tied to a specific numeric range, like "Will the S&P 500 close between 5,400 and 5,500 at the end of the month?" Multiple overlapping range contracts allow traders to take positions on exact values rather than just yes or no.
Multiple Choice Markets - Contracts where the question has more than two possible answers, like "Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" Each candidate has its own contract, and only one will settle at $1 while the rest settle at $0.
Combination Markets - Parlay-style products that bundle multiple contracts into a single position. All legs must resolve correctly for the combination to pay out, but the potential return is higher. Combination markets launched at Kalshi in late 2025 and have since spread across most major platforms.

Prediction Market Categories

Prediction markets cover a surprisingly broad range of categories. The specific menu varies by platform, but Kalshi, as the largest U.S. market, covers essentially everything described below.

Politics - Elections at the federal, state and local level, legislative outcomes, policy decisions and international political events. PredictIt and Kalshi both have particularly deep political market catalogs.
Sports - The biggest category by volume, including NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college sports, golf, tennis, MMA and international competitions. Sports contracts include game outcomes, player props, futures, season-long markets and playoff brackets.
Economics and Finance - Interest rate decisions, inflation readings, unemployment numbers, GDP growth, stock market benchmarks and currency exchange rates.
Entertainment - Award show outcomes, including the Oscars, Grammys and Emmys, as well as box office performance, streaming numbers and reality TV results.
Science and Weather - Temperature and precipitation contracts, hurricane season forecasts, scientific breakthroughs and space-related events like rocket launches.
Business and Corporate - Mergers and acquisitions, IPO timing, earnings beats, CEO transitions and regulatory approvals.
Crypto - Cryptocurrency price targets, ETF approvals, regulatory actions and major protocol events.
Esports - Major tournament outcomes across games like League of Legends, Dota 2, Counter-Strike and Valorant.
Mentions - Novelty markets that track how often a specific word or phrase is mentioned in a presidential speech, debate or press conference.
Technology - Product launch timing, AI benchmarks, subscriber milestones and tech-sector regulatory decisions.
Health - Drug approvals, disease surveillance numbers and public health milestones.

Prediction Market Bonuses

Bonuses at prediction market platforms look different from sportsbook or casino bonuses because the structure of the product does not lend itself to traditional deposit matches. That said, most major platforms now offer some form of new-user incentive. Here is what you are most likely to see.

Trade Credit Offers - The most common format, where a platform gives you bonus trading dollars after you complete a qualifying trade. For example, Underdog has offered a $75 trade credit after a $75 qualifying trade. These bonuses are generally non-withdrawable but any profits earned from trading them can be cashed out.
Deposit Bonuses - Some platforms offer a match on your first deposit, though this is less common in prediction markets than in sportsbooks.
Fee Rebates - Kalshi and a few competitors have run promotions that reduce or refund trading fees for new users or high-volume traders.
Referral Bonuses - Most platforms offer trade credit for referring new users who make a qualifying trade.
Event-Specific Promotions - Around major events like the Super Bowl, the March Madness tournament or a presidential election, platforms run time-limited promotions with enhanced rewards.

Prediction market bonuses are generally smaller in dollar terms than sportsbook bonuses because the margins on prediction market trading are much thinner. The platforms do not need to match huge deposits to attract users, and they cannot afford to because their fees are tiny compared to sportsbook vig. Read the terms of any bonus before you deposit, because some platforms require significant trading volume to unlock the full value.

Final Thoughts About Prediction Market Sites

Prediction markets have emerged as one of the most important new categories in American gaming in a very short period of time. They offer access to a form of event-based trading in states where traditional sports betting is not legal, they cover market categories that sportsbooks cannot touch and they operate under a federal regulatory framework that has so far held up against most state-level challenges. Kalshi has become the clear market leader, Polymarket has returned to the U.S. in a regulated form, and major sportsbook operators like DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have all launched their own prediction market products.

The legal picture remains unsettled. State-level injunctions and federal court rulings have created a patchwork of availability that changes month to month. The Supreme Court may ultimately have to resolve the tension between federal CFTC authority and state gambling law, and that ruling could reshape the industry significantly. Whatever happens, prediction markets have already changed the conversation about what legal event-based trading looks like in the United States.

For most American players who are comfortable with a trading-style interface and interested in markets beyond just sports, prediction market sites are a legitimate and interesting addition to the menu. They are not a replacement for a full-service sportsbook if that is what you want, but they offer flexibility, broader market access and nationwide availability that traditional sports betting simply cannot match in states without regulated markets. Start with a small deposit, focus on markets where you have genuine insight and treat prediction markets as a long-term activity rather than a quick hit.

10 FAQs About Prediction Markets

1. Are prediction market sites legal in the United States?

Yes, federally regulated prediction markets are legal in most U.S. states. Platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com and DraftKings Predictions operate under CFTC oversight as Designated Contract Markets. Some states have challenged specific platforms under state gambling law, but federal court rulings have generally protected the industry. The legal picture is still evolving.

2. What is the difference between a prediction market and a sportsbook?

A sportsbook offers fixed-odds bets where you wager against the house and the book takes a position against you. A prediction market is a peer-to-peer exchange where you buy and sell event contracts with other users, and the platform takes a fee on each trade but does not take the other side of your position. Prediction markets also cover non-sports categories like politics and economics.

3. Which prediction market site is the biggest?

Kalshi is the largest prediction market in the U.S. by volume, with roughly 89 percent market share as of early 2026. Polymarket is the largest in the world by global volume but has a smaller U.S. footprint since its re-entry in late 2025.

4. Can I bet on sports at prediction markets?

Yes. Sports event contracts are the single biggest category at most prediction markets, accounting for the majority of trading volume at Kalshi, Underdog, Fanatics Markets and DraftKings Predictions. Some states have blocked sports event contracts on specific platforms, so check your state's status before assuming sports markets are available.

5. Can I lose money on prediction markets?

Yes. Prediction market trading involves real financial risk, and losing contracts settle at $0. You can lose the full amount you paid for a contract if the event does not resolve in your favor. Treat prediction markets with the same risk awareness you would apply to any form of real money gaming or financial trading.

6. What are the fees on prediction market trades?

Fees vary by platform. Kalshi uses a formula that peaks around 7 percent at even-money contracts and declines toward the edges. Polymarket charges a flat 0.10 percent taker fee. DraftKings Predictions charges a flat $0.02 per contract. PredictIt is the most expensive at 10 percent on profits and 5 percent on withdrawals. Read the fee schedule before you start trading heavily on any platform.

7. Do I have to pay taxes on prediction market winnings?

Yes. The IRS treats prediction market profits as taxable income. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi issue 1099 forms for eligible accounts, and gains are reportable the same way as other financial trading income. Consult a tax professional if you are trading with any regularity.

8. Can I trade prediction markets on my phone?

Yes. All the major prediction market platforms offer either dedicated iOS and Android apps or fully functional mobile websites. Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions and Robinhood all have native apps, while Polymarket uses a web-based interface that works well on mobile browsers.

9. Can I sell a contract before the event resolves?

Yes. One of the biggest differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks is that you can sell your position back into the market at any time before resolution. If the price has moved in your favor, you can lock in a profit early. If it has moved against you, you can cut your losses instead of waiting for a losing settlement.

10. What happens if the Supreme Court rules against prediction markets?

If the Supreme Court eventually rules that state gambling laws can apply to prediction market event contracts, the industry would likely shift from a single federal framework to a state-by-state model similar to online sports betting. Platforms would need to obtain state-level licenses where available, and availability would shrink in states without a legal path to licensure. This is one of the biggest open questions in U.S. gaming right now, and it could be several years before the full legal picture is settled.